By Arda AKGÜL
News – Analysis
While Trump is running again for the presidency of the United States of America, the world’s agenda is shaped by the Russia-Ukraine War, the Israeli-Palestinian War and the Iran-Pakistan Conflict in the Baluchistan region against some military targets included Jaish al-Adl’s one, which has been heard about in recent days but will most likely fizzle out. All the while, we are entering the second month of the year. We are 9 months away from the United States elections in November 2024. In the primaries in the US state of Iowa, which determined the nominee of the Republican Party, Trump won by a landslide. Of course, Trump’s “strong showing” has become an issue not only for the Democratic Party, but also for Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Palestine and the Palestinians, the Houthis, Iran, regional powers like Turkey, and of course America’s NATO ally, Europe.
Donald Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis who has withdrawn from the race and diplomat Nikki Haley were the top three candidates in the Iowa caucuses. Donald Trump won all the electoral districts with a difference of 30 percent between him and DeSantis. except Johnson County which elected Nikki Haley by one vote.
In the state capital, Trump accused current President Biden of being the worst president of the United States. Donald Trump, who has harshly criticized Biden throughout the election cycle, hopes that his election will end many of the world’s tensions. From the Russian-Ukrainian war, which has been going on since February 24, 2022 with no clear outcome, to the Israeli-Palestinian war that started on October 7, 2023, it is not difficult to say that the impact of these wars, which have seriously shaken security around the world, negatively affected economic data and most importantly, we have witnessed a great human tragedy, will be relatively reduced under Donald Trump if he is elected.
Apart from the countries in the region, these problems affect regions like Europe, which is both close to the Russia-Ukraine area and also to the conflict zone that started in Israel-Palestine, followed by Yemen, and may spread to Lebanon, which could be in trouble if some of the significant share of energy resources and trade routes have problems. Even if these problems had not occurred, the fact that the United States of America, which is an important counterweight to Russia and China, is run by someone like Donald Trump, who does not have a favorable view of NATO, spending on European security and the ability of the United States to be a forcible factor in conflicts which may mean isolationist view around the world, will have an impact in Europe, European countries and their security and defense.
For this reason, Europe is both preparing for the Trump era and starting to build a defense system using its own resources. The “Trump era”, which has started to be heard from senior figures, is likely to change Europe’s defense approach considerably.
At the World Economic Forum, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba stated that “Ukraine can finish this job” if sufficient military equipment is provided. Since February 2022, Ukraine, one of the two warring states, has been receiving military equipment from the United States and Europe under the Biden administration. It is not hard to sense that some people in these regions are complaining that their taxes are being spent to fight the war in this region, a view that is becoming increasingly popular, even though Kuleba has stated that “money stays in the United States with investment in the production of weapons that go to Ukraine and US people also benefit from this”. All these issues will be taken into account in the November election for the president of the United States of America. Countries will take their positions accordingly.
The international community, including marked out countries like Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Palestine, Iran, and European nations due to their current agendas are supposed to closely monitor the developments in the United States. The Trump era, marked by skepticism towards NATO, may reduce spending on European security, and apply a more isolationist stance, prompts European countries that can cause them to reevaluate their defense strategies, technologies and prepare for a potential shift in the geopolitical landscape.
The impact of the November elections extends beyond US borders, influencing ongoing conflicts, European defense initiatives, trade, and the economies of nations in the affected regions and global market. The concerns about the allocation of resources for military interventions, which can affect Ukrainian military power against Russia.
In conclusion, as the world suffers with complicated geopolitical challenges such as the Russia-Ukraine War, the Israeli-Palestinian War, and the Iran-Pakistan Conflict in the Sistan and Baluchistan region, the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the presidency adds a new layer of uncertainty to global affairs. Trump’s decisive victory in the Iowa caucuses and his tough stance against President Biden, especially on subjects such as ongoing international conflicts and current situation of the American economy, may mean a possible shift in US foreign policy if he wins the presidency in the November 2024 elections. The November 2024 elections will determine not only the US, but also the ongoing conflicts in the region, the defense of Europe, the trade and therefore the economies of the countries, and the political outlook in the world.
Berg, M. (2024, January 20). Trump says NATO countries spent “billions” after he threatened to not defend EU. POLITICO. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/20/trump-nato-eu-00136732
Bloomberg. (2024, January 18). Ukraine assured aid from us is coming, Kuleba says. Bloomberg.com. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-01-18/ukraine-assured-aid-from-us-is-coming-kuleba-says-video
NBCUniversal News Group. (2024, January 18). Iowa caucus 2024 Live Election Results – NBC News. NBCNews.com. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/iowa-president-results
Richard, L. (2024, January 16). Trump calls Biden “worst president” during iowa victory speech, says Jimmy Carter “brilliant by comparison.” Fox News. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-calls-biden-worst-president-during-iowa-victory-speech-says-jimmy-carter-brilliant-by-comparison
Ron DeSantis drops out of White House race and endorses Donald Trump. (2024, January 21). https://www.ft.com/content/334d84e1-87fa-4f7f-a016-1e5c2c0649c0